@article {1417, title = {Analysis of an individual-based influenza epidemic model using random forest metamodels and adaptive sequential sampling}, journal = {Systems Research and Behavioral Science}, volume = {37}, year = {2020}, pages = {936-958}, abstract = {

Abstract This study proposes a three-step procedure for the analysis of input{\textendash}response relationships of dynamic models, which enables the analyst to develop a better understanding about the dynamics of the system. The main building block of the procedure is a random forest metamodel capturing the input{\textendash}output relationships. We utilize an active learning approach as the second step to improve the accuracy of the metamodel. In the last step, we develop a novel way to present the information captured by the metamodel as a set of intelligible IF{\textendash}THEN rules. For illustration, we use the FluTE model, which is an individual-based influenza epidemic model. We observe that the number of daily applicable vaccines determines the success of an intervention strategy the most. Another critical observation is that when the daily available vaccines are constrained, nonpharmaceutical strategies should be incorporated to reduce the extent of the outbreak.

}, keywords = {adaptive sequential sampling, FluTE, individual-based modelling, Metamodeling, Rule Extraction}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/sres.2763}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sres.2763}, author = {Edali, Mert and G{\"o}nen{\c c} Y{\"u}cel} } @article {1415, title = {Classification of generic system dynamics model outputs via supervised time series pattern discovery}, journal = {Turkish Journal of Electrical Engineering \& Computer Sciences}, volume = {27}, year = {2019}, pages = {832{\textendash}846}, author = {Edali, Mert and Mustafa Gokce Baydogan and G{\"o}nen{\c c} Y{\"u}cel} } @article {1414, title = {Automated Analysis of Regularities Between Model Parameters and Output Using Support Vector Regression in Conjunction with Decision Trees}, journal = {Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation}, volume = {21}, year = {2018}, pages = {1}, abstract = {

Opening the black-box of nonlinear relationships between model inputs and outputs, significantly contributes to the understanding of the dynamic problem being studied. Considering the weaknesses and disadvantages of human-guided and systematic techniques offered in the literature, this paper presents a model analysis and exploration tool for agent-based models. The tool first approximates input-output relationships by developing a metamodel, a simplified representation of the original agent-based model. For this purpose, it utilizes support vector regression, which is capable of approximating highly nonlinear systems accurately. Following metamodel fitting, the tool incorporates a tree-based method to extract knowledge embedded in the metamodel. The resulting tree is then expressed as a set of IF-THEN rules that have high comprehensibility compared to complex metamodel function. We utilized the tool for the exploration of Traffic Basic model and the results show the relationship between model input and output. Furthermore, rules extracted from the metamodel point out certain counter-intuitive results of the model which are not easily inferred from the raw input-output data. We also discuss potential uses of our tool and provide the R script which makes the analysis repeatable for other agent-based models.

}, keywords = {decision tree, MetaModel, R, Rule Extraction, Support Vector Regression, Traffic}, issn = {1460-7425}, doi = {10.18564/jasss.3786}, url = {http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/21/4/1.html}, author = {Edali, Mert and G{\"o}nen{\c c} Y{\"u}cel} } @article {1496, title = {Results of a beer game experiment: Should a manager always behave according to the book?}, journal = {Complexity}, volume = {21}, year = {2016}, pages = {190-199}, abstract = {

We investigate the effect of the literature suggested optimal values of the parameters of a dynamic decision-making heuristic in the presence of semirationally managed supply chain echelons using a soft coded one-to-one version of The Beer Game as an experimental platform. According to the counterintuitive results obtained in this study, it is possible for a {\textquotedblleft}rational manager{\textquotedblright} to obtain higher costs than the costs generated by a {\textquotedblleft}semirational manager.{\textquotedblright} Thus, the results do not support the use of the well-established decision parameter values for the echelon of concern if the other echelons{\textquoteright} inventories are managed suboptimally. {\textcopyright} 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 190{\textendash}199, 2016

}, keywords = {anchor-and-adjust heuristic, artificial agents, beer game, stock management, supply chain management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/cplx.21731}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/cplx.21731}, author = {Edali, Mert and Yasarcan, Hakan} } @conference {edali2014effect, title = {The Effect of Semi-Rational Supply Chain Members on the Decision Parameters Used in Managing the Stock of an Echelon}, booktitle = {The 32nd International System Dynamics Conference, Delft, Netherlands}, year = {2014}, publisher = {System Dynamics Society (http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2014/index.html)}, organization = {System Dynamics Society (http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2014/index.html)}, author = {Edali, Mert and Yasarcan, Hakan} } @article {1497, title = {A Mathematical Model of the Beer Game}, journal = {Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation}, volume = {17}, year = {2014}, pages = {2}, abstract = {

The beer production-distribution game, in short {\textquotedblleft}The Beer Game{\textquotedblright}, is a multiplayer board game, where each individual player acts as an independent agent. The game is widely used in management education aiming to give an experience to the participants about the potential dynamic problems that can be encountered in supply chain management, such as oscillations and amplification of oscillations as one moves from downstream towards upstream echelons. The game is also used in numerous scientific studies. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model that is an exact one-to-one replica of the original board version of The Beer Game. We apply model replication principles and discuss the difficulties we faced in the process of constructing the mathematical model. Accordingly, the model is presented in full precision including necessary assumptions, explanations, and units for all parameters and variables. In addition, the adjustable parameters are stated, the equations governing the artificial agents{\textquoteright} decision making processes are mentioned, and an R code of the model is provided. We also shortly discuss how the R code can be used in experimentation and how it can also be used to create a single-player or multi-player beer game on a computer. Our code can produce the exact same benchmark cost values reported by Sterman (1989) verifying that it is correctly implemented. The mathematical model and the R code presented in this paper aims to facilitate potential future studies based on The Beer Game.

}, keywords = {Acquisition Lag, artificial agents, beer game, Mathematical Model, Replication, System Dynamics}, issn = {1460-7425}, doi = {10.18564/jasss.2555}, url = {http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/17/4/2.html}, author = {Edali, Mert and Yasarcan, Hakan} } @article {edali2014mathematical, title = {A Mathematical Model of the Beer Game}, journal = {Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation}, volume = {17}, number = {4}, year = {2014}, pages = {jasss{\textendash}soc}, publisher = {Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation}, author = {Edali, Mert and Yasarcan, Hakan} }